Iran Today

On Sunday, April 22, 2012, we were treated to an informative talk by Dr. Bill Marcus, Former Chairman of the Dept. of Political Science at Duquesne University who provided a new depth of understanding of the Middle East and its ferment.  Dr. Markus, in a previous talk,  had filled us in concerning the so-called
"Stan" countries and the religious and tribal strife that exists
there.  This time his focus was on Iran.

            Dr. Markus opened by acknowledging that, “the drums of war are beating again",  surrounding Iran’s nuclear programs.  The question, of course, is the consequence of provocation on both sides and the potential involvement of the U.S., Israel, and perhaps the entire Middle East.  Complicating the situation are issues related to regime change and future leadership within Iran.  Dr. Markus was also concerned about the apparent drift among our own military leadership and intelligence experts toward the concept of “permanent warfare!"

            Shifting his discussion and focus to Iran’s internal situation, Dr. Markus provided the following:

• There exists in Iran intense persecution of minorities.
• The Shia majority chooses not to protect these minorities.
• There are no real democratic structures existing in Iran.
• There is continued pressure upon any semblance of secular leadership.
• The supreme clerical leadership holds the real power, not the president.
• At this point, the intentions of Iranian leadership regarding its nuclear
       capabilities are unknown.

With respect to this last point, it is unclear whether their nuclear ambitions are defensive in nature or a regional equalizer.  So far Iran has not recently been
aggressive beyond its borders, but there is often a wide gap between what they
say and what they actually do.  In this regard, Dr. Marcus urges patience.

Dr. Markus provided additional information concerning Iran:

• It is a regionally important country positioned between Iraq, Turkey,
       Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
• Population, 75 million. 
• 53% of Iranians live below the poverty line.
• Sanctions and oil sales issues have limited government subsidies for the poor.   (Prior subsidies were $87 billion.)
• Unemployment is running above 17%, mostly among the young.
• University students and the young employed have actively demonstrated against the ruling group of religious clerics, but the supreme authority continues its upper hand.

There was lively discussion following Dr. Markus' presentation, but given the fluid nature of the situation in the Middle East, there were more questions than answers.  

Prof. Markus’ in-depth knowledge and experience benefited all who attended and all were grateful for his dynamic presentation .  

                                                                               John Catoline